Incubation in the Clusters

2012/06/06 by Leave a comment

Once again, Silicon Valley is showing the rest of us how its done (see “Incubation” for the data).  Robotics only feels like it is poorly incubated in the Valley, because it doesn’t have incubators with multiple branches in the Valley like biotech and software do.  At least traffic sucks so bad in the Valley that when robotics gets going in the Valley it will need multi-branch robotics incubators just so people won’t have to drive.

All jealousy of California’s good fortune aside, robotics businesses are hard to start.  Not only do they have all the complexities of a software business (with a much more challenging test cycle), but they also have other parts that are equally challenging.  They are a hardware business, a manufacturer, and often a distribution or operations company as well.  I don’t see too many 22 year old college drop-outs running manufacturing and distribution businesses–they are too complex and require too much capital to just let them fail like a VC can do with a mobile app company.  Hence these kinds of companies are run by people who know what they are doing.  How do we create more entrepreneurs who ‘know what they are doing?’

For robotics to take off, we are going to have to find models that produce profitable companies with much less wasted capital than software venture capital does.  Incubation and mentorship are probably going to be really key to making this happen–good job to the Bay Area for getting on this.  If community leaders want to lay the foundation for something really extraordinary in their community, get a robotics incubator going in your community.

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Better Coverage for Robotic Stocks

2012/06/05 by Leave a comment

Unfortunately we’re still not a big enough industry that we get good news and analyst coverage on important events.  For instance, Hansen Medical (NASDAQ:HNSN) announced FDA approval of their new surgical device yesterday.  Expected perhaps, but still uncertainty reducing good news for the company, the stock should go up.  It does for a few minutes, then the market goes back to hammering them.   For a company of alumni from Intuitive Surgical, what gives?

I understand they are not growing, but it seems like they have the breathing room to perfect their product and growth does not occur linearly in these kinds of companies.  I’d love to see some good information on what the company should be valued at conditional on success and what the current market discount implies about the probability of success.

Check it out on Google finance:

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1338964260514&chddm=1955&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:HNSN&ntsp=0

Q1 2012 Conference Call Transcript:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/553711-hansen-medical-s-ceos-discuss-1q-2012-financial-results-earnings-call-transcript

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USA #1 & #2

2012/06/05 by Leave a comment

For all the wrangling about the future of U.S. spaceflight, the New York Times had an article to remind us today that the U.S. not only has the largest spaceflight program in the world (NASA), but also the second largest space flight program in the world (DoD).

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/05/science/space/repurposed-telescope-may-explore-secrets-of-dark-energy.html

I think the real consternation comes from the fact that all spaceflight that has a compelling rationale is unmanned.  This rise of the robots in the budget somehow has people confused about what our space programs are capable of.

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Cluster Activities (Continued)

2012/06/03 by Leave a comment

The Massachusetts Tech Leadership Council is a really great organization.  I’m not sure how they get their members to pony up for the services that they provide (I’d like to know for my activities in Pittsburgh!), but having a professional cluster organizer like Elizabeth Newstadt and an organizational hub for promotion of the entire industry is fantastic.  I’ve heard that there are some frictions from the fact that the cluster crosses state lines and it is the “Mass TLC” as opposed to a New England-wide organization.  Still, the degree of organization that the cluster centered on Boston has is astounding.  A good deal of credit for this goes to the Mass TLC.  As an example, the survey they do of the robotic cluster is fantastic.  The other clusters should undertake similar surveys which would increase the value of Boston’s survey exponentially.

On the other coast, the San Francisco Bay Area is clamorous and still fairly ill defined–by which I mean there are a lot of people who may or may not be a part of the robotics industry.  Many robotics people think of themselves as being in the medical device industry, software, or electronic hardware–but not necessarily robotics per se.  On top of that, tons of people in the Bay who are not in robotics professionally provide the clamor and enthusiasm.  For example, all of my personal friends that build and fly drones for fun live in California.  I’m from back East, so the selection bias should run against the Bay.  They just love technology, nerdiness, and doing “your own thing” in the Bay–and robots fit the bill perfectly.  In fairly short order, I suspect that Andra Keay and the other folks behind the Silicon Valley Robotics Cluster and Robot Launch Pad will provide some of the rally flags to bring order to this energy–then the valley will be a sight to behold.  The Silicon Valley robotics people I’ve met think that their community needs to catch-up to Pittsburgh and Boston, but this probably only makes them dangerous since my data is starting to show that they are equal anyone.

Pittsburgh is a small community.  It is really great–everyone is super friendly and if you’re in robotics everyone knows everyone.  If you find yourself in Pittsburgh, I would be happy to introduce you to them and they will be nothing but good to you.  Things can happen really quickly because there is high degree of trust and community spirit.  My personal take on the robotics community in Pittsburgh is that there are things that need to be done collectively to get to the next level (VC education, a robotics incubator, more diversity of academic research, etc.).  The personal dealing model is going to be helpful, but not sufficient, to get the Allegheny robotics cluster to grow to the size that the region wants it too.  More formal organizations, supported by bottom-up enthusiasm for things like happy hours, meet-ups, and demos is going to be required for the Pittsburgh robotics cluster to scale.

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Robotics Implementation Manifesto

2012/06/03 by Leave a comment

My prior article in Unmanned Systems, kindly hosted by Deloitte, lays out some of my formative experiences with robotics that give rise to my thoughts about implementation of robotic systems.  I am firmly convinced that we as a robotics community are perpetually tempted to make the same mistakes.  I’d like to propose a draft of an Agile Manifesto style creed for implementing robotics.

My commitment is to help bring about a better world enabled by robotic technology.  From experience using robotic systems, these principles have shown their value.

Redesigning processes and organizations over using the latest technology

Early fielding over continued analysis

Managing risk as a part of operations over engineering out risk

Changing the world and making money  over elegant design

Giving the end customer exactly what they want over maximizing autonomy


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Cluster Activities

2012/06/02 by Leave a comment

How do we judge the quality of a robotics cluster’s activities?  The point isn’t actually to have a lot of meetings.  The point is to spark those interactions which can create or advance enterprises whether through ideas, collaborators, or resources.

Since we can’t measure that directly, I propose the Meetup.com test.  It is a crude metric, but should serve our purposes.  The idea is that the number meetup.com events coming up with relevant key words should serve as a rough proxy for how many people are out after work trying to create the next thing.

By this metric, Silicon Valley is crushing the rest of us.  Not only do they have more money, and better weather, but also they are out having more drinks.  Data is in the following the link.  https://robocosmist.wordpress.com/robotics-clusters/  Meetup.com test performed June 2, 2012.

Accordingly, San Francisco is the only place I’ve ever been served a martini made by a robot–by the Drinks Advanced Research Projects Agency no less.   Fortunately for getting girls back to my place, my gin martinis are still the best.  But the John Henry moment in robotic drinks is coming…

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